Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 15.589563 18.142435 20.930659 24.195213 27.905528 31.984003 36.799093
2024-10-06 12.347649 16.037371 20.461895 26.124711 33.142542 41.513946 52.211838
2024-10-13 9.704184 13.874201 19.294836 26.775705 36.736694 49.436496 66.727208
2024-10-20 7.793087 12.133309 18.189260 27.108602 39.730745 56.742774 81.144870
2024-10-27 6.397015 10.757928 17.240987 27.353039 42.440668 63.767548 95.741204
2024-11-03 5.762899 10.355742 17.562484 29.358736 47.749865 74.782887 116.793914
2024-11-10 5.104853 9.767814 17.465357 30.642101 52.031517 84.609736 136.905744
2024-11-17 4.524257 9.187514 17.261394 31.669939 55.943781 94.133774 157.262535
2024-11-24 3.833148 8.270783 16.333487 31.334334 57.553513 100.139774 172.579163
2024-12-01 3.155789 7.243041 15.039592 30.162099 57.574575 103.513609 183.866187
2024-12-08 2.631418 6.412511 13.970941 29.224790 57.842335 107.225585 195.871717
2024-12-15 2.316800 5.959347 13.552486 29.424762 60.115814 114.447203 214.193682
2024-12-22 2.002060 5.458014 12.991733 29.336403 61.958325 121.264718 232.710433
2024-12-29 1.870286 5.360038 13.263303 30.957486 67.224460 134.636078 263.783245
2025-01-05 1.666259 5.041659 13.006937 31.449781 70.333298 144.319345 288.965129
2025-01-12 1.475156 4.713313 12.674218 31.729238 73.030181 153.427444 313.726819
2025-01-19 1.307512 4.408913 12.346315 31.969028 75.652337 162.568639 339.151541
2025-01-26 1.269656 4.463469 12.893715 34.254872 82.781229 180.940167 383.196647
2025-02-02 1.190712 4.379475 13.081146 35.719595 88.268542 196.439464 422.669646
2025-02-09 1.105080 4.255434 13.145728 36.894606 93.218128 211.186802 461.564686
2025-02-16 0.965086 3.922513 12.601905 36.508992 94.628251 218.801457 486.811680
2025-02-23 0.810104 3.495935 11.725596 35.165092 93.696740 221.458858 502.230967
2025-03-02 0.686706 3.143403 10.994270 34.090152 93.268477 225.111424 519.859070